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Posted: Saturday 12 August, 2017 at 12:13 PM

Forecasters predict above normal hurricane season in Caribbean region

By: Staff Reporter, SKNVibes.com

    BASSETERRE, St. Kitts – FOTRECASTERS at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted that there might be a higher than above normal Atlantic hurricane season in the Caribbean region.

     

    This is according to a statement recently issued by the NOAA, in which it stated that the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has the potential to be extremely active and could be the most active one since 2010.

    It also informed that forecasters have increased their former predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes for the season.

    “Forecasters now say there is a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season (compared to the May prediction of 45 percent chance), with 14-19 named storms (increased from the May predicted range of 11-17) and 2-5 major hurricanes (increased from the May predicted range of 2-4). A prediction for 5-9 hurricanes remains unchanged from the initial May outlook,” the statement said.

    Gerry Bell, Ph.D., who is the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was quoted as saying: “We’re now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form. The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”
     
    He noted other factors that point to an above-normal season include warmer waters across the tropical Atlantic than models previously predicted and higher predicted activity from available models. 

    According to the predictions, “In just the first nine weeks of this season there have been six named storms, which is half the number of storms during an average six-month season and double the number of storms that would typically form by early August. An average Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-November 30, produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.”

    On the local front, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has been pushing hurricane preparedness across the Federation.

    Only recently NEMA’s Director Carl Herbert had reminded that persons would need to stop last-minute preparations when a storm is on its way.

    Residents and citizens have practiced undertaking last minute shopping when the storm is within the vicinity, as witnessed by this media house on a number of occasions.

    Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Brock Long said: “Today’s updated outlook underscores the need for everyone to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge. As we enter the height of hurricane season, it’s important for everyone to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update their insurance and have a preparedness plan.”
     
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