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Posted: Monday 30 November, 2015 at 2:40 PM

The Drought Continues, While the Hurricane Season Ends...

By: NEMA, Press Release

    November 30th, 2015 -- In May of this year, international weather service forecasters predicted a below average 2015 hurricane season and re-instated that estimation just three months later in August. At that time the experts focused on growing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean that were expected to create disruptive wind shear across the Atlantic to inhibit tropical system formation.

     

    During the season, which ends today, Monday, 30th November, there were 12 Tropical Depressions, 11 Tropical Storms, 4 Hurricanes with 2 being categorised as “intense”.

    The two intense hurricanes of the season were Danny and Joaquin. Danny reached winds of 115 mph before dry air and strong winds tore it apart near Guadeloupe, before approaching St. Kitts-Nevis with some rain, minor flooding at higher elevations and moderate winds. We were lucky we said, no major damage to homes or infrastructure,... and then the drought continued. And water rationing followed, proving luck had nothing at all to do with it.

    Senior Met Officer, Elmo Burke said, “For the past year, St. Kitts-Nevis would have been primarily impacted by troughs most of the year, while Tropical Waves and Storms Danny and Erica, occurred during the Atlantic Hurricane Season.”

    According to Burke, the latter part of the season saw impacts from frontal Troughs (which are systems that precede a cold front), creating instability in the atmosphere and leading to moderate shower activity, as a result. 

    “Other than that,” says Burke, “the Season was dominated by the drought impact, which would have been driven by El Nino, culminating with below average rainfall.” And the rationing continued.

    For many, the upside of the 2015 season is that although many storms formed in the eastern Atlantic, they eventually dissipated after being torn apart by wind shear in the central and western Atlantic, before making any significant landfalls. According to Burke, “We have El Niño to thank for that."
     
    Last week CariCOF convened their “Drought Outlook Forum” at the Marriott in St. Kitts, the second of its kind, hosted by the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH). The intent was to discuss and to analyse the implications of the Caribbean’s 2015 Dry Season forecast amid outlooks for stakeholder groups (such as Tourism, Water Services, Agriculture et al), while focusing on the current drought conditions in the Caribbean.

    Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Public Infrastructure, Posts, Urban Development and Transportation, Mrs. Brenda Boncamper, has said that the formulation of CariCOF came with “technology that places the region in a position where we are now equipped to respond to many climate events that confront us, for instance droughts, floods and tropical cyclones which continue to pose serious risks for our region.”

    Mrs. Boncamper explained that instead of the traditional “wet” or “rainy season” St. Kitts and Nevis has had to face a serious water crisis due to below average rainfall. “Our water services department has been experiencing a very difficult 2015, a reality we have not experienced in 30 years,” she said.

    Adding to that, scientists are predicting that the drought will not cease until well into the first quarter of 2016, despite some moderate to heavy downpours of late. Some are even proposing that “Drought” may become the new “Normal” for future weather patterns within the region.

    The National Disaster Coordinator, Carl Herbert, has extended thanks to residents and the media for undertaking preparations, while remaining vigilant throughout the hurricane season and for disseminating critical information, respectively.

    “As drought conditions continue, I urge residents not to waste water but to store this precious resource instead and to obey the instructions and appeals of the Water Services Department. During the next 5 months,” he said, “make time to examine and address the status of your property in preparation for the 2016 hurricane season.”

    Vesta I. Southwell
    Public Relations Officer
     
     
     
     
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