BRADES, Montserrat, February 7th, 2012  –  “Investment should continue and increase” on Montserrat despite the volcano, says His Excellency the Governor Adrian Davis.

The governor was commenting on the 16th report from the Scientific Advisory Committee issued on 13 December 2011.

“The headline news for most people was that the committee considered that the probability of a new lava extrusion or magmatic explosion in 2012 was 70%. It is important to be clear what this means in practice.

(a) “There is a probability of 70% of something happening at the volcano this year. The something could range from a major pyroclastic flow to very minor extrusions. There is also of course a 30% probability that nothing at all will happen.

(b) “Based on all the current evidence, the risk of death for any individual from the volcano is 1 in 30,000 if you live in Zone A, 1 in 2,000 in Zone B, and 1 in 9,000 in Zone C (people only have daytime access to Zone C, so the probability of death is lower than in Zone B)

(c) “As you move northwards from Zone A, the probabilities become very much lower. To the immediate north of the Nantes River, the probability is about 1 in 5 million.

(d) “If an event occurred, then the risk and all the associated probabilities would need to be reassessed depending on what kind of event happened and its magnitude.

(e) “The SAC report is not a reason for potential investors to be put off investing in Montserrat. On the contrary, investment should continue and increase.  The SAC report is a clear demonstration that the volcano and its risks are being proactively managed.

(f) “The north of the island is virtually entirely safe from any conceivable volcanic activity, apart from the potential inconvenience of ash fall,” the statement from the governor read.

Members of the committee are briefing officials from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and the Department for International Development (DFID) and other interested departments in London on 22nd February.

“This is a clear indication that the UK Government continues to take a close interest in the volcano and its overall responsibility for the Overseas Territories,” stated the governor.
    

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