June 1st, 2016 -- According to NOAA’s (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Climate Prediction Center, the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1st through November 30th, will most likely be near-normal. The uncertainty, experts say, is attributed to the climate messaging received through the signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms. This, NOAA specialists are saying, makes predicting this season particularly difficult.
Accordingly, the agency predicts a 70% likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a near-normal season most likely has a 45% chance, there is also a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. This includes Hurricane Alex, a pre-season system that formed over the far eastern Atlantic in January and Tropical Depression Bonnie, which formed Saturday, 28th May, becoming the second tropical storm in the Atlantic to form before the official start of the hurricane season on Wednesday, June 1st.
“This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. "However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal.”
Bell explained there is uncertainty about whether the high activity era of Atlantic hurricanes, which began in 1995, has ended. This high-activity era has been associated with an ocean temperature pattern called the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation or AMO, marked by warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a stronger West African monsoon. However, during the last three years weaker hurricane seasons have been accompanied by a shift toward the cool AMO phase, marked by cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a weaker West African monsoon. If this shift proves to be more than short-lived, it could usher in a low-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, and this period may already have begun. High- and low-activity eras typically last 25 to 40 years.
In addition, El Niño is dissipating and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 70 percent chance that La Niña — which favors more hurricane activity — will be present during the peak months of the 2016 hurricane season, from August through October. However, current model predictions show uncertainty as to how strong La Niña and its impacts will be.
The NEMA is responsible for Response Coordination, according to National Disaster Coordinator (NDC), Carl Herbert, and as such, we do not respond directly during an impact, but we bring responders together, ensure they are equipped and send them into action, while simultaneously keeping the public informed. Mr. Herbert also noted that the NEMA accomplishes its public awareness objectives by working closely with a number of stakeholders in the private and public sectors, to ensure that communities and businesses are continually updated using public service announcements and bulletins.
“Forecasts vary from year to year”, Herbert said, “some predict high, sometimes low activity, however, it only takes one system to significantly disrupt life as we know it.”
“We must be vigilant, therefore, and remain in a state of preparedness until at least, the season ends.”
Mr. Herbert says that preparing for the worst can keep both community residents and first responders safe during an impact, and encourages every resident and citizen to take steps today to protect themselves and loved ones by engaging in tried and preparations. These actions should be second nature to all of us by now, Herbert said, since we live in the Atlantic Hurricane pathway, which ensures us that there will be a hurricane season, annually, and that at some point, it will affect us.
Here are some of the steps recommended by the NDC to be taken in preparation for the annual Hurricane Season:
- develop a family communications plan,
- build an emergency supply or First Aid kit for your home,
- make sure you and your family know your evacuation route to safety.
Additionally, the NEMA Head proposes the following for consideration by all:
- Prune and cut branches and limbs from trees that may be overgrown, as these may become brittle, break and can become missiles during high winds; also, store outdoor furniture, planters or debris from around your home, to a secured place for the same reason,
- Check roofs and other areas of your dwelling for holes or cracks, as rain is often plentiful before, during or after an impact, (or all of the above),
- Begin to stock up on canned foods and other items that may be useful during a period of confinement,
- Invest in battery-operated communications devices, such as radios, flashlights and hand radios.
- Know the members of the District Management Team within your area,
- Have your emergency numbers visibly displayed in your home, this should include the Police, Fire and Rescue Services, the Hospital and neighbours or family determined to be the ‘Contact’ person in your Family Disaster Plan.
For more information, please call the NEMA at 466-5100.
Vesta I. Southwell
Public Relations Officer.
31st May, 2016.
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