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Posted: Friday 10 August, 2018 at 12:54 PM

Hurricane predictions lowered for season

By: Jermine Abel, SKNVibes.com

    BASSETERRE, St. Kitts, Aug. 10.2018 – OFFICIALS at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are now expecting a less than active 2018 hurricane season but are urging preparedness.

     

     
    The body, in a statement, disclosed that conditions in the ocean and atmosphere are “conspiring” to produce a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in May.
     
    As the season enters its peak months, the NOAA has urged persons to be prepared and vigilant for those storms that may form.
     
    “There are still more storms to come – the hurricane season is far from being over.” stressed Gerry Bell, Ph.D., Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

    Initially, forecasters predicted close to 17 named storms for the season, but that was revised in yesterday’s statement where it was disclosed that forecasters with the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center “increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook”.
     
    “The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent,” the statement noted.
     
    According to the NOAA, it predicts a total of 9-13 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater, of which 4-7 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.
     
    “So far, the season has seen four named storms, including two hurricanes. An average six-month hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes,” the statement reminded.

    In producing the update, forecasters took several factors into consideration including the El Nino, which they pointed out is at a 70% likelihood of development during the season.

    Additionally, the sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, were taken into consideration and they currently remain cooler than average.
     
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