'Calming El Niño’ lowers predictions for hurricane season

BASSETERRE, St. Kitts-THE 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, has thus far produced no named storms due to the effects of El Niño, and experts at the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have officially reduced their predictions for the year. 

“The NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop,” the August Atlantic hurricane season update stated. 

In the organisation’s May prediction, it was estimated that the Atlantic would see “nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes”.

This was a slightly above average prediction, but the latest release indicated that “forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes”.

The reduction in storms was attributed to warm winds from the Pacific Ocean atmospheric oscillation referred to as El Niño.

“El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms,” said Dr. Gerry Bell, one of the NOAA’s lead forecastors. 

The announcement comes as good news to those living in areas susceptible to hurricanes, particularly those areas of the Caribbean that were especially hard hit by the 16 storms and eight hurricanes of the 2008 season.

However, the NOAA advised the public to not be lulled into a false sense of security by the prediction. 

“These outlooks are extremely valuable when determining cycles and trends for the season, however they don’t tell us when the next storm will occur or where it may strike,” FEMA administrator Craig Fugate stated. 

“It only takes one storm to put a community at risk. That is why we need to take action and prepare ourselves and our families before the next storm hits, including developing a family disaster plan,” he added.

As always, persons in St. Kitts-Nevis are being urged to have their hurricane preparedness plan in place for their entire family, and to be fully stocked immediately on supplies that would be necessary if a storm were to strike the Federation.