BASSETERRE, St. Kitts - SCIENTISTS attached to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration predicts ministration’s (NOAA) climate prediction center has updated its outlook for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season which is heading into its peak.
In its latest outlook, the National Weather Service Division moved away from a “near-normal level” to an “above-normal level” for this year.
In its statement, NOAA said, “Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.”
It was against that backdrop that the outlook was increased to 60 percent from 30 percent outlined back in May.
“The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May's outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season,” NOAA said.
Based on the updated outlook, NOAA said it expects 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), with 6-11 of them becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Additionally, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“Considering those factors, the updated outlook cal ls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season,” Rosencrans added.
It has been an unusual start to the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season where the Atlantic basin has already recorded five storms that have reached tropical storm levels, and one hurricane.
According to NOAA, “an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes”.
