BASSETERRE, St. Kitts -- FORECASTERS at Colorado State University have published their prediction for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and they are expecting it to be a very active period.
According to their forecast, researchers are predicting “an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2024 forecast”. This prediction is primarily based on record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, with researchers anticipating 11 hurricanes this year.
Explaining the rationale behind their forecast, CSU forecasters stated, “When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic.”
Based on their early predictions, the CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team expects 23 named storms for the upcoming season. Out of these, researchers anticipate eleven to become hurricanes, with five reaching major hurricane strength.
“So far, the 2024 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and 2020,” CSU noted.
Furthermore, the forecasters highlighted that these conditions are likely to lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic during the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, as warm ocean water serves as a hurricane’s fuel source. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, both of which favor hurricane formation.
Despite El Niño conditions currently prevailing in the tropical Pacific, forecasters anticipate a transition to La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, from August to October. La Niña tends to decrease upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, resulting in reduced vertical wind shear, which favors Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.
