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Posted: Thursday 27 June, 2024 at 4:37 PM

First major  disturbance brewing in the Atlantic

NHC Graphic showing the disturbance area
By: Staff Reporter,

    BASSETERRE, St. Kitts — Officials at the National Hurricane Center and meteorologists in the region are closely monitoring a developing disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.


    In a recent statement, the NHC has designated this disturbance as AL95. A tropical wave, situated several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is currently generating disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Despite its current disorganization, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable, leading to anticipated development of this system. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend, several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.


    While the system is currently moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, officials urge interests in the Lesser Antilles to monitor its progress closely.


    In the short term, the NHC assesses a medium 60% chance of formation, with a higher likelihood in the long term.


    The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season has begun, and forecasters predict an "above-normal" season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) anticipates 17-25 named storms with winds exceeding 39 mph. NOAA further forecasts 8 to 13 of these storms to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters express 70% confidence in these projections.


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