BASSETERRE, St. Kitts – WITH the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially underway, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) is reflecting on the hard lessons learned from Hurricane Beryl in 2024.
The storm, which devastated parts of St. Vincent and the Grenadines as well as Grenada, was the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record and underscored the growing threat posed by climate change.
The 2025 season is expected to be above average. Forecasts from Colorado State University project 17 named storms, of which nine are expected to become hurricanes and four may reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
Speaking at a press conference to mark the start of the season, CDEMA Executive Director Elizabeth Riley emphasized the implications of Hurricane Beryl and the broader impact of climate change on regional preparedness.
“Beryl last year was really a wake-up call to the implications of climate change,” Riley said in response to a question from SKNVibes. “Traditionally, we have not seen, certainly not Category 5 systems occurring so early in the hurricane season. But these are some of the possibilities that the climate scientists have told us were going to be possible with climate change.”
She stressed that the Caribbean is likely to continue experiencing stronger storms and more erratic weather patterns, including prolonged dry spells. She told reporters that the region “will continue to see these types of very different patterns in how the cyclones are taking place, and we're also seeing a lot of diversity -not only in the cyclones, and I want to make this point, but also in severe weather”.
A major factor influencing the 2025 forecast is the abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic. Warm waters provide more energy for storms to form and intensify. The absence of El Niño conditions—known to suppress hurricane activity—further supports predictions for a busy season.
"Though these forecasts come with some uncertainty, the region must remain vigilant and prepared as it only takes one storm to cause a significant impact," Riley urged.
She also pointed out that while current efforts focus on hurricane preparedness, the Caribbean must also be ready for other hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and technological and biological threats.
Reflecting on the agency's progress over the past year, Riley highlighted improvements to CDEMA’s regional response mechanism.
“Repeated activations and subsequent after-action reviews, including from Hurricane Beryl in 2024, have been invaluable," she added. "They've offered critical insights that have helped us to identify existing strengths in the regional system, but importantly areas for continued improvement. These insights have been central to our ongoing efforts to ensure we are prepared for any eventuality."
Between April 2024 and March 2025, CDEMA implemented key updates to its Regional Coordination Plan, with an emphasis on strategies to address multi-island impacts.
Riley confirmed that CDEMA has taken significant steps to ensure that it is better prepared and more responsive should any challenge arise durng this season.
