BASSETERRE, St. Kitts --THE Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) programme that helped propel St. Kitts and Nevis into the ranks of the Caribbean’s wealthiest microstates is again under international scrutiny — this time less for its economic returns and more for the geopolitical questions it raises in an increasingly polarized global order.
As the birthplace of the modern CBI industry, the twin-island Federation has long marketed its passport as a gateway to mobility, opportunity, and economic security. Investors are drawn by visa-free access to more than 150 countries, flexible residency requirements, and a reputation built over four decades. Yet the programme’s rapid expansion over the last ten years has sparked concern among international partners about who is gaining access to Kittitian and Nevisian citizenship — and whether investment migration could become an indirect channel for foreign influence.
Those concerns are unfolding at a time when China is aggressively expanding its presence across Latin America and the Caribbean, while simultaneously seeking to isolate Taiwan diplomatically. Though St. Kitts and Nevis does not maintain formal relations with Beijing, the growing participation of Chinese nationals in the Federation’s CBI programme has added a new layer of complexity to an already sensitive geopolitical balancing act.
A Programme Bigger Than the Country Itself
Over the past decade, St. Kitts and Nevis has seen a sharp rise in the number of economic citizens alongside increased migration from within CARICOM and the OECS. This growth has placed pressure on infrastructure and public services in a country whose resident population remains just over 53,000.
According to the European Commission’s Eight Report, the Federation received 17,668 CBI applications between 2015 and 2023, resulting in 48,844 passports being issued. In the following two years, more than 3,000 additional applications were recorded, with 6,437 passports issued in 2024. As at April last year 734 had been issued - bringing the total to more than 55,000. In practical terms, passports issued under the programme now exceed the number of people who live and work in the Federation.
The Commission noted that many successful applicants originate from countries whose citizens would otherwise require visas to enter the European Union — including China, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Nigeria, and Lebanon. While the Citizenship by Investment Unit releases limited demographic data, international reports suggest Chinese nationals now represent one of the largest applicant cohorts across Caribbean CBI programmes.
Critics argue that the absence of routinely published nationality and residency data by St. Kitts and Nevis weakens public oversight and fuels speculation about the strategic implications of mass citizenship grants, particularly when applicants are concentrated from geopolitically sensitive states.
Grenada, as part of its international obligations in establishing the programme, provides quarterly reports detailing its operations. These reports include the nationalities of applicants, the number of applications received, the numbers approved, the number of passports issued, and the total revenue generated.
China, Mobility, and Strategic Ambiguity
China does not officially recognize dual nationality, yet wealthy Chinese nationals remain among the most active users of investment migration programmes worldwide. For many, a Caribbean passport offers mobility, asset diversification, and a hedge against political or economic uncertainty at home.
However, analysts warn that scale matters. While individual applicants may be motivated by personal considerations, a sustained concentration of citizenship acquisition from any single country — particularly a major geopolitical power — can raise longer-term governance and security questions for small states.
The concern is not that Chinese CBI citizens are acting as agents of the Chinese state, but that the programme itself could unintentionally create strategic leverage. Visa-free access to Europe, limited residency requirements, and minimal post-citizenship monitoring have all been flagged by European and North American authorities as vulnerabilities if due diligence systems are inconsistently applied.
Several high-profile legal cases involving Chinese holders of Caribbean passports have further intensified scrutiny, reinforcing fears that investment citizenship could be exploited for illicit financial flows or geopolitical positioning — even if such cases remain the exception rather than the rule.
Public Good Projects and the Belt and Road Question
Adding to the complexity is the Public Benefit and Public Good investment option, which allows large-scale capital inflows tied to national development projects. While these investments can finance much-needed infrastructure, critics caution that the model can blur the line between economic development and influence-building if transparency is weak.
This concern resonates across the region as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to reshape Caribbean infrastructure landscapes. In several jurisdictions, Chinese-financed ports, roads, and public facilities have preceded deeper political and diplomatic engagement with Beijing.
Though St. Kitts and Nevis is not a BRI partner state, the growing presence of Chinese capital — including through citizenship acquisition — has prompted questions about whether economic pathways could eventually translate into political pressure, especially as Beijing continues its global campaign to reduce Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies.
The BRI is an initiative launched under Chinese President Xi Jinping, focused on financing major infrastructure projects including roads and ports. Since its inception, more than 150 countries have signed various memoranda of understanding with the Chinese government, reportedly representing an estimated US$1 trillion in commitments.
Reports indicate that more than 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) territories have joined the programme, with Guyana recently completing its 2,900-metre Demerara Harbour Bridge at US$260 million under the initiative.
Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica are some of the other territories benefiting from the BRI.
While the support has been widely welcomed, projects carried out under the programme have also left several participating territories facing significant debt burdens. One such example is Jamaica, which is reportedly owes China more than US $700 million following a number of supported projects, including the development of the North South Highway which was completed back in 2016 and the Southern Coast Highway which remains under construction.
While many criticize the BRI, others have acknowledged the realities that these projects are seen as a lifeline for some of the territories which could not afford them without the BRI support. Many development partners have either provided similar funding at higher interest rates or there is no supporting capital for such projects to be completed.
Reform Efforts and External Pressure
In response to mounting international criticism, St. Kitts and Nevis and other OECS CBI jurisdictions signed a Memorandum of Agreement aimed at harmonizing standards and strengthening oversight. The agreement commits governments to information-sharing, enhanced transparency, independent audits, stricter regulation of authorized agents, and the establishment of a regional regulatory authority.
Despite these efforts, the United States recently tightened scrutiny on passport holders from Antigua and Barbuda and Dominica, suspending certain visa categories due in part to concerns about insufficient residency requirements. The move has sent ripples through the entire Caribbean investment citizenship industry.
Last year, the Governments of St. Kitts and Nevis and other OECS territories moved to implement key reform measures to strengthen safeguards within their programmes, including the introduction of mandatory residency requirements and biometric data collection.
“We are serious when we say that we will do what is necessary to put this CBI programme in good standing,” St. Kitts and Nevis Prime Minister Dr Terrance Drew said while speaking during one of his Roundtable sessions.
Economic Lifeline or Strategic Liability?
There is little dispute that the CBI programme remains central to the Federation’s economy, contributing an estimated 30-90 percent of GDP. Revenues reached approximately EC$218-to EC$670 million over the last decade, funding social programmes and public infrastructure that would otherwise be unattainable.
In 2019, the country recorded EC$443 million, followed by EC$270 million in 2020. There was a significant increase in 2021 to EC$543 million, and 2022 proved to be a successful year with EC$669 million. However, after reforms were imposed on the programme, the government saw a slight decline in 2023 to EC$621 million, followed by a sharp drop in 2024, with only EC$218 million recorded.
Attorney-at-law and former National Security Minister Dwyer Astaphan warned that weak oversight risks eroding national credibility, while acknowledging that the programme is an economic necessity for a resource-poor state.
He believes that the concern lies specifically with the lack of information sharing and special projects and the number of passports being issued under the Public Good Option of the programme.
“So, my concern right now with the CBI is whether it can survive or not," he stated. "The government, in my opinion, is putting it to the test. It is putting it to the test with at least three projects. One is the airport project; the second is the BHS, the Basseterre High School project; and the third is the National Performing Arts Centre project. All three are what they call public good options."
"I do not like the way these options are structured," he added.
Nevis Premier and Opposition Leader Mark Brantley has cautioned against conflating isolated criminal cases with systemic failures, while acknowledging that the sheer number of economic citizens inevitably raises long-term governance questions.
“I am not concerned about that. I think that those — the practical matter—those things happen...it doesn’t suggest any weakness in the programme," Brantley said.
"...you and I are here now; we have no criminal record. But if we were to leave here and get ourselves involved in a criminal activity, we then have. So if a man was granted citizenship 10 or 15 years ago, when he had no criminal record, and then later involved himself in criminality, it’s not a weakness of our programme."
In an invited comment on geopolitical shifts and the CBI programme, Prime Minister Dr Terrance Drew confirmed that the government is moving to establish a regulatory body to safeguard the Federation’s programme, ensuring it is “more resilient, built on transparency, and integrity.”
“Of course, there are geopolitical aspects to it that we deal with all the time, but we continue to engage our international partners, from the EU to the United States,” Drew noted.
Taiwan Ties in a Changing Region
St. Kitts and Nevis has maintained formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan since independence in 1983, making it one of only a handful of Caribbean states still aligned with Taipei. Over four decades, Taiwan has funded projects across healthcare, agriculture, education, sports, water security, and community development.
Notable contributions include approximately US$7 million toward the redevelopment of the Warner Park Cricket Stadium for the 2007 ICC Cricket World Cup, more than 100 scholarships for local students for tertiary education, desalination initiatives, and the 2023 refurbishment of the New Road Playpark at a cost exceeding US$350,000.
Warner Park Cricket Stadium
Taiwan’s Resident Ambassador Edward Ling-wen Tao recently reaffirmed the partnership, describing it as “positive and fruitful” and pledging continued support for nation-building. He acknowledged China’s growing influence in the Caribbean but emphasized that Taiwan’s assistance remains focused on long-term development rather than strategic leverage.
“I met with the Prime Minister and the Honourable Ministers and also grassroots friends, and they are all very positive about their relationship with Taiwan. And I can assure you that Taiwan will remain a loyal friend of St. Kitts and Nevis for many years to come.”
Yet history in the region offers cautionary examples. In several Caribbean and Central American states, expanding economic ties with China have eventually been followed by diplomatic shifts away from Taiwan — often justified on development grounds.
China continues to view the LAC region as a priority amid the changing global landscape. This was underscored by the European Parliament, which pointed to the frequency of high-level visits by Chinese Communist Party officials — including President Xi Jinping. In a report published last year, the European Parliament noted that between 2013 and 2024, the president visited the region six times, reportedly more often than the last three US Presidents combined.
A Delicate Balancing Act
For now, most analysts agree that St. Kitts and Nevis’s CBI programme is not a direct geopolitical backdoor for China. Yet they also caution that in an era of great-power competition, economic instruments rarely remain purely economic.
As one of Taiwan’s remaining Caribbean allies, the Federation occupies a position of outsized strategic significance. The challenge ahead lies in preserving economic opportunity without allowing scale, opacity, or external pressure — real or perceived — to undermine sovereignty, credibility, or long-standing diplomatic relationships.
In that sense, the debate surrounding CBI is no longer just about passports and revenue. It is increasingly about how small states navigate global power shifts without losing control of their own strategic destiny.
