WASHINGTON, DC – OFFICIALS at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are raising serious concerns after maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to near zero, a development that could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.
In a report released today, UNCTAD said ship transits through the critical waterway have declined by approximately 95 percent over the past month. The disruption comes amid escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which has triggered sharp increases in oil and commodity prices worldwide.
Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on key infrastructure and military bases across the Middle East have further intensified instability in the region, contributing to volatility in global markets.
As a result, UNCTAD is projecting a slowdown in global trade and economic growth. The agency forecasts a decline of at least one percentage point in annual merchandise trade growth, alongside rising inflation driven largely by surging crude oil prices.
Global GDP is now expected to fall to around 2.6 percent by year’s end, with additional impacts including weakening stock markets and depreciating currencies across developing economies.
In response, UNCTAD is urging governments to adopt coordinated policy measures to stabilize prices and cushion the impact of inflation, particularly on vulnerable populations. It is also calling for development banks to be strengthened and equipped to provide emergency financing where needed.
Meanwhile, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, has warned of a deteriorating human rights situation across the Middle East. He noted that restrictions on civic space and freedom of expression have increased significantly since the start of the conflict.Türk pointed to waves of arrests and widespread crackdowns—often based on vaguely defined charges—that are having a chilling effect on populations already grappling with uncertainty, fear, and anxiety
The situation remains fluid, with further details continuing to emerge.
