WASHINGTON, DC – THE World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is warning that strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to dominate global weather patterns through at least the end of October, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and significant shifts in rainfall across much of the world.
The forecast comes as countries across North America, Europe and the Caribbean continue to endure prolonged heat, with parts of the United States, Canada, France, Germany and Italy experiencing record or near-record temperatures. The extreme heat has also fuelled widespread wildfires, causing extensive damage and loss of life in several regions.
In its latest El Niño outlook, the WMO said the climate pattern is expected to continue strengthening during the August to October 2026 period.
"El Niño is expected to dominate global climate patterns in the August-October 2026 season, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns," the agency said.
The WMO noted that the developing El Niño, combined with exceptionally warm global oceans and the anticipated emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, is expected to influence weather patterns worldwide over the coming months.
Meteorologists said the rainfall outlook reflects a classic El Niño pattern, with some regions expected to receive above-average rainfall while others face an increased risk of drought.
According to the WMO, forecasts from leading global climate centres indicate that seasonal average sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions. At the same time, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole—where waters in the western Indian Ocean become warmer than average while the eastern Indian Ocean cools—is also forecast to develop.
Together, these climate drivers are expected to heighten the risk of drought, flooding and wildfires, particularly around the Indian Ocean Basin, while the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are also forecast to remain above average.
Across the Caribbean, meteorologists are already urging governments and residents to prepare for increasingly dry conditions, with several territories having reported below-average rainfall in recent months, prompting water conservation measures and raising concerns about water security.
In St. Kitts and Nevis, authorities have placed the Federation under a drought watch, with restrictions on activities such as watering gardens and washing vehicles with hoses as officials seek to conserve dwindling water supplies.
Meteorologists have warned that El Niño is likely to prolong dry conditions, placing additional pressure on reservoirs and increasing the possibility of water rationing if rainfall remains below normal.
Senior Meteorological Officer Elmer Burke said rainfall across the Federation has been significantly below the long-term average.
"As we know, St. Kitts and Nevis, similar to other Caribbean countries, have been facing impacts of drought for the past few months to varying degrees. Based on rainfall totals observed at the RLB International Airport up to the end of May, we have recorded 8.66 inches of rainfall compared with our long-term average of 15.5 inches for the same period, " he told reporters at a June Press conference
"That represents a deficit of 6.84 inches, meaning the Federation has received only about 56 per cent of its normal rainfall through the end of May, based on climatological data from 1990 to 2020."
The dry trend continued into June, when just 1.3 millimetres (0.05 inches) of rainfall was recorded at RLB International Airport. By comparison, the Federation typically receives an average of 3.41 inches of rainfall during the month.
Burke cautioned that while heavy rainfall events remain possible during the Atlantic hurricane season, they are unlikely to reverse the overall trend.
"We are not saying that there won't be any heavy rainfall events during the hurricane season, but based on the major climatic drivers, the overall trend is for below-normal rainfall across the region during this period," he said.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months. It usually begins forming between March and June, peaks between November and February, and has its greatest influence on global temperatures during the year after it develops.
The intensity and impacts of each El Niño event vary depending on factors such as its strength, duration, timing and interaction with other climate systems, including the Indian Ocean Dipole. While some regions experience heavier rainfall, others face prolonged dry spells and increased wildfire risk. Extreme weather can also occur during neutral ENSO conditions.
The WMO classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. Although the phrase "super El Niño" is often used in public discussions, it is not part of the organization's official classification system.
