WASHINGTON, DC – RISING temperatures and increasingly disruptive weather patterns are putting fresh pressure on global food prices, with concerns growing over the impact of extreme heat, drought and other climate-related risks on agricultural production.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said its benchmark index of world food commodity prices rose in August, as adverse weather conditions raised concerns about supplies.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August, an increase of 1.9 per cent from July and 2.5 per cent compared with August last year.
Sugar recorded the sharpest increase, rising by nearly 12 per cent during the month.
FAO attributed the increase in part to adverse weather conditions affecting sugar beet yields in the European Union, along with lower sugar production in Brazil. Concerns about the potential impact of El Niño on production in key Asian sugar-producing countries also contributed to the increase.
India’s announcement of duty-free imports of raw sugar was another factor behind the movement in prices.
Wheat prices have also come under pressure, with prices up about 15 per cent from a year earlier. The increase has been linked to disruptions in Black Sea export logistics and high temperatures across parts of Europe.
The developments come as countries continue to deal with the effects of extreme weather on agricultural production, raising concerns that further disruptions could place additional pressure on consumers and food-importing countries.
Looking ahead, the FAO forecasts global cereal production at approximately 2.98 billion tonnes this year.
While that would still represent the second-largest cereal harvest on record, it would be about 2 per cent lower than last year’s production.
El Niño adds to concerns
The food price increases are also being watched against the backdrop of a strengthening El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says El Niño is strengthening rapidly, increasing the prospect of extreme heat, drought, flooding and other disruptive weather conditions in different parts of the world.
According to the latest WMO outlook, the phenomenon is already firmly established and is expected to become “very strong,” with its peak anticipated around the end of the year.
The likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027 is now close to 100 per cent, according to the UN weather agency’s latest projections.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that typically develops every two to seven years when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm.
That warming can alter atmospheric circulation thousands of miles away, affecting rainfall and temperature patterns in countries far beyond the Pacific region.
For agriculture, those changes can have significant consequences, particularly when prolonged heat, drought or excessive rainfall disrupt planting, harvesting and crop yields.
The current El Niño is also developing against an unusual backdrop, with global ocean temperatures already exceptionally warm. That means the natural climate pattern is unfolding on top of an already warmer climate system.
Scientists have not established that human-caused climate change is making El Niño itself stronger or more frequent.
However, the WMO notes that a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify some of the phenomenon’s effects by providing additional heat and moisture to fuel extreme weather.
With global food prices already showing signs of renewed upward pressure, continued extreme weather could therefore become an important factor for governments, farmers and consumers to watch in the months ahead.
