Big Trouble

By G.A.Dwyer Astaphan

It’s like a powerful hurricane on the verge of striking hard, with nowhere for us to hide, our hearts pounding with fear, overcome with a sense of isolation and vulnerability, as we beg God to be merciful.

But this is not an act of God. It is totally man-made. I’m referring to the fiscal and moral crisis which we face.

For 7-8 years, maybe more, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had been urging the Government to take strict measures to lower its debilitating debt and to protect the economy and the nation from collapse. But the IMF was pretty much ignored.

Why? Certain persons did not want to test the patience of the voters too much and risk defeat in the 2004 or the 2010 General Elections, because they wanted to remain in power.

As a result, profligacy, inefficiency, graft and political and personal self-indulgence prevailed over fiscal prudence, administrative responsibility and transparency.

And the national debt skyrocketed to $2,750,000,000.00 (two billion, seven hundred and fifty million dollars).

Now, it would be bad enough if this crisis was occurring in a healthy global economy. But this isn’t the case; so we can appreciate the catastrophic possibilities which our nation faces.

The economy contracted last year and will remain that way this year.

That means businesses downsizing and even closing down, workers being laid off, freezes in hiring taking place, less new businesses starting up, less revenue for the Government, and so on.

But while Government’s revenues decrease, the debt won’t. Indeed, if the Government has less money, it’s possible that the debt might even increase.

Because, remember, the Government also has to find money to provide proper health care, improved education and other social services, a reliable supply of electricity, well maintained roads, community and sports facilities, a healthy environment, and satisfactory security and safety services. It has to pay (even after the  selected 55-year-olds are sent into retirement) its 6,000 employees plus pensions, and, on top of all of that, it has to significantly reduce the national debt and stimulate sufficient economic activity to achieve a recovery.

Where will the Minister of Finance find the money? How will he get the job done? Will he get it done? Can he get it done?
 
Where will he find the millions of dollars required to cut Severance Pay cheques to all of those private and public sector workers who are being, and will be, laid off, and to pay gratuities to 55-year-old public servants who he is sending home? Will he ask those who are eligible for gratuities to have some compassion for him and the Government and take some or all of their gratuities in treasury bills, or land, or shares in the new electricity company instead of cash?

Will the banks be forced to foreclose on people’s mortgages, causing them to lose their homes?

And what about the hundreds of people in the YES program who are being sent home? Seeing that they were given double pay at Christmas, will they now get Severance Pay? How will they pay for the house lots which were allotted to them for the $100 down-payments before the last elections? And where will they find work?

They have begun asking if Government’s attitude to them post-election is different from its attitude pre-election? Many, if not most, of them have already concluded that they were fooled.

But there’s more. What about the graduates of our high schools, the CFB College and the universities? Where will they find work? And what about the repayment of the student loans of the university graduates?

While they realize that we are in an economic crisis, are they to sit, unemployed and meek, as they see all of these jobs in their homeland being held by foreigners?

And with all of those people out of work, and job prospects being not at all encouraging, can we anticipate an emphatic rise in antisocial activity and crime?

Indeed, are we seeing this already?

This is a real crisis.

Owners of businesses, large and small, are scared out of their skins, because they can’t sustain their businesses if too many people are looking for help and for work, and are growing angrier and more desperate by the day.

And you won’t be surprised to learn that many voters are wondering why it is so hard to get in touch with certain persons in this time of great need when, up to January 25th, 2010, those same persons (and their assistants) were all over them like icing on a cake, sweet and loving.

You get the picture, I’m sure.

But the debt has to be paid, and the truth is, Government has allowed this crisis to deepen, and now drastic measures have to be taken, albeit in the midst of a double-dip recession.

Of course, while the people are being forced to gird their loins for God knows how long, you may well ask how much sacrifices the leaders and those around them are making, with the office of one Permanent Secretary being upgraded allegedly to the tune of $50,000 since the January elections, with travel and living high-off-the-hog still going on at break-neck pace, and with word that brand new Government lap-top computers and other items are finding their way into certain people’s homes.

The VAT will be introduced in a hurry, when we had seven years to do this. And when it is introduced, most of the people will not have understood it, and they will be confused.

But there’s more. A Professional Tax will be introduced, and the Housing and Social Servicers Levy Act will be expanded, as the Minister of Finance tries his best to cast a widening net to collect personal income tax.

And the $150,000-a-year threshold for businesses is not as low as you might think (that’s about $500 a day in gross sales).

When all of these taxes bear down like that God-awful hurricane on a country that has not been properly prepared for it, simply because for seven-plus years the leaders wanted to satisfy their own interests rather than the interests of the people, and at this time of great fiscal weakness and instability, something or somebody will have to give.

This isn’t a threat, or a hope. It’s reality.

And I must, respectfully, say this: if St.Kitts & Nevis were a truly modern, sophisticated democracy and there was an Opposition worth its salt, the Labour Government might have been defeated maybe in 2004, and almost certainly in 2010.

Because, over the past seven or so years, it has not governed along the lines of fiscal and administrative prudence, responsibility and efficiency, and its loss of moral authority has been exposed while it has kept so many important things close to its chest as if it is operating a private business.

For example, where is the Report of the Director of Audit?

Manchester, Sebastian, Halbert, John, Challenger, Bradshaw and the other stalwarts of days gone by must be spinning in their graves!

It is the Government’s fault why we are where we are. Dr. Douglas has failed the country in this very critical way, as have those of us who have gone, and continue to go, blithely and obligingly along for the ride with him.

But they too will feel the squeeze, and we shall hear if they continue to sing the ‘It’s Working’ chorus when that happens, as we all are made to pay for these failings and failures of Dr. Douglas who, if the heat becomes too intense, might just fly the coop and try to spend the rest of his years in comfort overseas.

After all, he has already shown how fond he is of being away from St.Kitts & Nevis.

Lord, look trouble.