January 25th 2010 Election aftermath, analysis and suggestions

By James Milnes Gaskell

For an Administration in office and seeking re-election the matters of importance are:

1. Personalities: This comprises the candidates and those who form the heart of the Administration.
2. Policies: Have the promises of past policies been carried out, are the policies for the future realistic?
3. Performance: Has the Administration been effective, not only in implementing its policies but in dealing with the various happenings in the nation’s life which have come upon it unexpectedly?
4. Public Perception: Personalities, Policies and Performance can only work to the Administration’s advantage when skilfully presented through the media. That is what is meant by Public Perception.  It is vital. It is also currently inadequate.

The table towards the end of this article shows that the CCM win three seats, the NRP two. If it is business as usual and the local election is held, as it must be by July 2011, the CCM will win. Is there anything to be done?

The curious factor is the strong hold that the NRP’s Parry has on his seat, and the equivalently strong hold CCM’s Amory has on his. Each of them taking approx three quarters of the vote. This must be personal standing and charisma, rather than just ‘the local man’, since their opponents are sometimes also from the area. It is very unlikely that there will be any chance of a change in the outcome at the next local election in these two seats.

It may be that the Administration is too close to the situation to be able to see clearly where it has gone wrong electorally, and it may be unwilling to admit mistakes, or even acknowledge the advances made by CCM and the reasons for them.

Here are some suggestions. Since the early days of the Administration in 2006, Brantley on his weekly radio programme and in the Nevis House, has contrived an anti-NRP slant on everything done by the Administration. In general, the response has been too little and too late. People tend to believe that which they hear first, and it is evident, from the swing over Daniel that Brantley has achieved, that his constant criticisms have met with the approval of the voters.

At the beginning, Brantley made the Administration look foolish over the implementation of the School Books Programme, the removal of Rodney Elliot from her patch outside the CSS, and the compulsory purchase orders. And recently he has managed to shed doubt upon the Administration’s ‘Homework Assistance Programme’. Business as usual will allow him to continue to outmanoeuvre the Administration in overall Public Relations. A fluent and confident blend of truth and untruth, reasonableness, distortion and invention has made headway with the voters. The Administration has no effective counter. The $9 million plus cost of the Commission of Inquiry is a figure for which there is no known provenance. Yet, by repetition it has become accepted in the minds of the voters as the actual cost, and so many may think, as propagated by Brantley, that we cannot afford it, and should not afford it. The Administration’s response to these criticisms has not worked. It is extraordinary that Brantley has by repetition of ‘And let us return to decent Government’, apparently succeeded in his double message that (a) the present NRP Government is not a ‘decent’ one, and (b) a returned CCM Administration would be.

Sometimes to obtain results you have to be ruthless with friends who may have done their best. If the capacity of those friends will not or has not got the results then those friends have to be replaced. This is hard but leaders have to take the necessary steps, and cannot be labelled good leaders unless they have the courage to do so.

The NRP has two potentially available candidates of charisma who might be able to help reverse any swing towards CCM. These are Victor J. Martin and Franklyn Brand.

Patrice Nisbett loses each time in St. James’. There is no point in running him at the local to lose again.  If the charismatic Franklyn Brand could be groomed for the seat and work on it for the next year he might win it. The NRP Administration now has to have a Media King, someone who puts out the Administration’s good reasons for the course of action it is taking before the distortions of the CCM.  This should be the function of the Cabinet Secretary. It has to be someone who knows the Administration’s actions and reasons for them and who has the confidence and support of the Cabinet.  Franklyn Brand, as Chairman/President of the St. Kitts Chamber of Commerce has valuable Press experience. If he could come in as Cabinet Secretary charged with Public Relations and Media this would give him the necessary exposure and could undo some of the damage made by the CCM’s often distorted criticisms. Victor J could replace Dwight Cozier as a nominated member.

The Administration has been unlucky in the global recession and the closure of Four Seasons, events outside its control but which impact negatively the lives of the voters, and keep the Administration constantly short of money.

It may be that the Commission of Inquiry, if it is able to hold its Public Hearings and make its report will show the public by reference to what happened under the past CCM Administration, what would happen under another CCM Administration. You may be sure that the CCM party and Brantley in particular will skilfully minimise any possible damage. It could be critical for the NRP that this whole matter is handled fully and properly with the Media. Someone, someone as able as Franklyn Brand, or he himself, should be in charge. We cannot forecast what the Commission will find but it is possible that its findings might even render Amory vulnerable to a strong candidate. On the other hand, if the Commission find that there was nothing that could have been done better under the Amory Administration, or if the perception is allowed to form that he has been unfairly targeted, then he might get a sympathy vote. The Media King has also to have a hand in TV editing of political matters.

This Administration has made some promises which it has not kept. Some of its supporters find this demoralising. There is no geothermal or indeed any new sign of it. The agreement with West Indies Power, in spite of assurances that it would be, has still not been published. Equally, the agreement made by the Administration modifying relations with Newfound is still unpublished. There is no sign on the ground at the Charlestown Primary School, or the Gingerland Primary School, of the much vaunted kitchen and cafeteria. This cannot be left any longer without risk of electoral damage.

It seems to be publically but not widely known that a French Company has bought out Kerry Macdonald of West Indies Power. We do not yet know what this means for Nevis and by extension for the NRP. This again is another matter that is very important and which could be properly publicised to the Administration’s advantage. This cannot be left to the Press releases sent out by Deli Caines-Bussue. Virtually all these releases are electorally pointless. The Media King needs to be in charge, so that proper weight can be attached to the Administration’s announcements and actions, and a sense of vitality, relevance and excitement engendered.

Even the return, if it happens, of Victor J and Franklyn Brand needs to be properly handled as a re-invigoration of the Administration. You can be sure that the CCM will describe it as the last desperate throw of a party running scared towards an inevitable defeat.

Business as usual is not an option if the Administration seriously wishes to maximise its chances of holding on to power. It is too risky to rely on events such as geothermal, school kitchens and Commissions of Inquiry, without a remake of the party at the top. A revitalised Administration would find it easier to raise funds for the next election. If it loses then a new CCM Administration would be able to capitalise on geothermal and the revival in the global economy. Victor J. and FB have to be offered a guarantee of their place and role at the top. A co-ordinated return and remake would be best.  This NRP Administration has performed better than the previous CCM government. They have to make sure that the people understand this.

Here are the 2006 and 2010 Election Results, Parish by Parish