Number of storms forecasted this season increased
By L.K. Hewlett
Editor-SKNVibes.com
BASSETERRE, St. Kitts – INITIAL forecasts regarding the number of named storms expected to form in the Atlantic this season has increased according to data released this week by the Colorado State University forecast team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray.
Gray, who is beginning his 25th year forecasting hurricanes at CSU, said that current conditions in the Atlantic basin are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1950, 1989, 1999, and 2000 seasons which had well above-average activity.
“Conditions are quite favorable for an active hurricane season. The current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic - prevalent in most years since 1995 - is a pattern typically observed before very active seasons. Warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2008 because of a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,” he said.
Klotzbach and Gray now predict that the 2008 season will have activity in line with the average of these four years.
The team's forecast now anticipates 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30 with nine of the storms predicted to become hurricanes, and of those, five are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. ~~Adz:Right~~
The team also predicts that tropical cyclone activity in 2008 will be 160 percent of the average season with an above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
"Another factor that is figured in is we've had two storms form in the deep tropics. Usually, before August, if we get a storm or two forming, that's a good indication that the rest of the season will be active," Gray said.
Since the 2008 season began June 1, the Caribbean has seen five named storms - hurricanes Bertha and Dolly and tropical storms Arthur, Cristobal and Edouard.
A forecast specific to the month of August, predicts four named storms and three hurricanes, one of them growing into a major hurricane, this month. The team has issued seasonal updates of its 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on June 3 and August 5 and will issue further updates on Sept. 2 and October 1.
