BASSETERRE, St. Kitts – NOTED local political scientist Dr. Asyl Warner is of the view that any boundary changes by the ruling St. Kitts-Nevis Labour Party (SKNLP) will result in it losing several seats.

Speaking exclusively to SKNVibes, Warner predicted that under the current circumstances, the SKNLP would win five seats to main opposition party PAM’s three. However, he believes that sudden boundary changes would result in the seats being split four-four.

He also commented on rumours of potential changes that have been circulating, which include adding Halfway Tree and Middle Island to Constituency Five, moving Upper Cayon from Constituency Eight to Seven, attaching New Road to Constituency Eight and including McKnight and Westbourne Ghaut in Constituency Three.

“Adding Halfway Tree and Middle Island to Constituency Five will not help the SKNLP. Sandy Point has always been in opposition to Labour and those two communities are 55-45 at this stage. Now Basseterre is a different matter; you can gerrymander Basseterre. If you move the boundary up to McKnight and come down Westbourne Ghaut that would significantly increase the numbers in Constituency Three.

“Additionally, if you take New Road and add it onto St. Peter’s in Constituency Eight, Constituency Two would be much smaller. But if you stretch Constituency Seven into Cayon, it would frighten Timothy Harris because Upper Cayon has always been a PAM stronghold. Cedric Liburd would then have a greater chance of winning Constituency Eight, as that area tends to support him,” Warner informed.

He also discussed the issue of Nevis, noting there was no talk of boundaries being changed there despite repeated calls from CCM’s Mark Brantley to do so. According to the political scientist, the Nevisian boundaries are untouched because the SKNLP does not want to anger the NIA as it may need them to form a coalition government if it does not win enough seats in St. Kitts to lead outright.

Warner strongly condemned the manner in which the ruling St. Kitts-Nevis Labour Party has conducted the Electoral Reform process, calling it a process “guided by mistruths, half-truths and untruths”. He questioned the sensibility of changing boundaries so close to election time, stating that he agreed with PAM’s Leader Lindsay Grant that any changes should be challenged legally.

“Why a boundary change at this stage of the game? Why would a party in office wait until the 11th hour to announce a boundary change? Is there something to lose, is there something to hide? “I do think boundaries should be changed ever so often, but they should be so well-done that no one would make noise. You shouldn’t be hearing this constant diet of mistruths and half-truths and untruths...you should not be hearing these funny rumours.

“If the changes had come two years ago people would not have made a fuss. I believe this move is one designed to confuse, disrupt and shift attention away from the real issues of today so we will forget about the high crime rate and unemployment, and instead concentrate only on the boundary changes,” Warner said.