BASSETERRE, St. Kitts - THE United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted an average Atlantic hurricane season for 2009, with nine to 14 named storms - four to seven of which could become hurricanes.
The prediction is slightly higher than the average season, which normally has 11 named storms leading to six hurricanes, but is likely to be less active than the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, which had 16 named storms with eight hurricanes.
Though the season is hoped to be gentler on the Caribbean than the previous year, NOAA Lead Forecaster Dr. Gerry Bell urged the public to remain vigilant as the season officially begins next Monday, June 1.
“This outlook is a guide to the overall expected seasonal activity. However, the outlook is not just about the numbers, it’s also about taking action. Prepare for each and every season regardless of the seasonal outlook.
“Even a near- or below-normal season can produce landfalling hurricanes, and it only takes one landfalling storm to make it a bad season,” Bell warned.
According to the NOAA’s release, a number of “competing” factors had to be considered when compiling the prediction for the 2009 season. These include the high-activity era that began in 1995, warmed water in the Atlantic and reduced wind shear.
It was further stated that the season could see an even more reduced level of activity if “El Nino develops in the equatorial Eastern Pacific this summer or if ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic remain cooler than normal”.
The first storm of the season will be designated Ana after it reaches the required 39 mph in sustained wind speeds to become a named storm.
St. Kitts-Nevis recently received a US $3.4M grant from the International Monetary Fund to help offset the tremendous costs incurred when the Category 3 Hurricane Omar passed near the islands last October, particularly those related to the closure of the Four Seasons Resort in Nevis.
The general public is urged to begin their hurricane preparations as early as possible, which would include developing an emergency plan for one’s family and creating a disaster supply kit with water, non-perishable food and flashlights, among other necessary items.
